Gameday Previews #4 (2002)

The first thing I want to say in this "State of the Union" is thank all the brave souls who have withstood rain, wind, and girls to come out and play. I won't name names; you know who you are. After last year's turd of a season, I never could have foreseen this league to go through 5 gamedays and only have ONE forfeit! Sure, in 2001 we had NO forfeits until the last gameday, but the memory of that season was washed away with fellas like Anthony Sanzone, Hart McKenzie, Bob Banos, etc, etc, etc. To this day, if you bring up Hart McKenzie, you get a four letter-laced tirade from Mr. Sylvester. Try it. It's fun.

See, I wasn't planning on doing this "progress report" initially, because I was worried we were going to have a repeat of last year. Then the rain came, and I was SURE we were screwed. Then the rain stayed, and I started writing a will. But here we are, entering mid-season. The weather's warming up, the wind is dying down, and best of all, the players are still here. Color me inspired. I'm so proud of this little league and the fact that we're on pace to break the league record for ABs in a season.

Of course, since I *have* experienced 1997, 2000, and 2002, allow me to be leery of the next five gamedays, and the five after that. But enough of that! Let's celebrate! With stats and analysis! What have we learned in 2003's first 29 games? I'll break it down, top 5 style.

#5 - The rookies of 2002 really DID suck!

I mean really, take a look at the list of rookies we've got playing this year, compared to last year! With the exception of Deatrick (and Cain, of course, but he wasn't playing until mid-August), none of the 2002 guys could hold the jock of the 2003 newbies. I mean, Sanzone and McKenzie had talent, but what's the talent without the love? As you can see, the 2003 crop is on pace to cross 1000 ABs, which would easily top the 2002 rookie total of 402. The 2002 crop hit homeruns at a slightly better pace, but that's all thanks to Cain, who hit nearly half of their homeruns himself. Their batting averages are identical.

Some of you may say, "well, so what?" True, the hitting stats are not really blowing anyone away, especially their 2002 rivals. But if you take into consideration the weather that most 2003 rookies have played in, hitting .219 at this point is HUGE. I predict right now that .219 will turn into .250 AT LEAST by the end of the season. Since the AB totals for both rookie crops are pretty much the same, you can basically consider the rest of the 2003 season to be the rookie's 2nd season. They've got some ABs under their belt, they've seen the pitchers, they're ready to go. On top of that, they'll be hitting in MUCH friendlier conditions than they have been.

Then there's the 2003 rookie crop's pitching numbers, which is where you REALLY see the difference between now and last season. Even a moron can see the discrepency. Again, some of you wise-asses may tell me that the weather is the main reason the 2003 ERA (2.87) is more than HALF the 2002 ERA (6.08), and to an extent, you're right. The weather has been nice to the pitchers. But if you look at that little column in the middle entitled "K/BB," you notice a little something that can't be blamed on the weather.

Every single pitcher in 2003 has a K/BB ratio of at least 2/1. All but one has a ratio of 3/1.

Only half the pitchers in 2002 could say that they've hit 2/1. Combined, the 2003 rookies are striking out nearly five batters for every walk they issue. In 2002, the sorry mound warmers were almost walking as many as they struck out. They also have more strikeouts per inning (1.36 in 2003 versus 1.19 in 2002) and if I felt like looking it up, I'd probably find that they led in nearly every other category as well.

Is the 2003 crop the best? With a gun to my head, I'd say yes. But let's pull out the old books and compare them to the 1998-2002 crops, just for some perspective.

The hitting stats look weak next to some of the bigger seasons, but if you compare it to the full league's average each season, it comes out looking about middle of the road. Year 2001 was especially bad. The league hit .313, but the rookies only hit .233. Then again, the two alumni from 2001 are Ian Byrd and Dean Evans, who today are combining to hit .413.

The 2003 pitching numbers hold up. The year 2000 had a slightly better ERA, but their K/BB ratio wasn't nearly as good. Year 1998 actually had a better K/BB ratio, but that number's misleading. In 1998, walks were rarely taken by batters. In fact, there were only 50 BBs ALL SEASON. Still, those 1998 hitting numbers are looking pretty good. It's a tough call, but I still say the 2003 crop would win in a Rookie Showdown between generations.

Bottom line is, we have a possibility of seeing all seven 2003 rookies cross 100 ABs, three of which could conceivably cross 200, which would set a record.

#4 - This league is fun!

Above I stated that we had three legitimate shots for rookies crossing the hallowed 200 AB barrier. It's really only two, but Curtis Henning (on pace for 180 ABs) COULD do it. Still, let's say he doesn't. The league still has six guys on pace for 200 ABs. The record is four, which occured in 2001 (Carmichael, J. Creighton, T. Creighton, Morrison). Then Joey Creighton is on pace for 183 ABs, and Henning is, as mentioned above, on pace for 180. People, this is a good thing.

Before the season started, I made mention that a goal of mine was to get EVERY PLAYER 100 ABs before the season was over. It was my "Holy Grail" of sorts. How am I doing with that goal? The following players are NOT on pace to cross 100 ABs. They're listed with their projected total, and my thoughts on whether or not they'll make it.

Matt Holmberg - 93 ABs (projected)
This one will be tough, but I think Matt will finish in the 110-120 range. He's good friends with Carlson, who came out for the first time, which will hopefully spark some friendly competition with Holmberg. Carlson is, after all, hitting almost 100 points better than Holmberg.

Pat Plummer - 87 ABs
He'll definitely make it. I expect no less than 125 ABs from him, and he WILL finish with a much better record than he has now (.069).

Tavis Beynon - 78 ABs
Pretty close to positive he'll pull it out. Like Pat, he'll be finishing in the 125 range.

Mike Walsh - 72 ABs
Considering he claims to be "a lock" for the five Saturday gamedays his team has later in the season, I don't see 100 ABs being a problem for him. Of course, if he only averages 12 per gameday, as he has so far, then he might need to squeeze in another Sunday.

Casey Sylvester - 51 ABs
This will be close, but I know Casey, and I know what he knows about this league, and I think he'll do whatever's necessary to make it.

Keith Carlson - 39 ABs
Saw his first ABs just a few days ago. Lucky for the Playerz, he played well, meaning he's more likely to keep coming out. Mr. Optimism sees him finishing with about the same as teammate Holmberg. Their coming out more will cut into Smith and Robins' ABs, but I still think they're a good shot for 200.

#3 - Hitters love The Sac, pitchers love The Byrd House

We began playing at The Byrd House as a sort of "retreat" from The Sac back in 2000. Just to spice things up, and give the neighbors at The Sac a little breathing room. The next season we had teams, and we found ourselves playing at both fields simultaneously. It was apparent then that The Byrd House was more for pitchers, but never as strong as it is now.

The difference in offense between the two fields is frightening. Listen up:

--Only 28% of the runs scored in the league have come at the Byrd House, and there have actually been MORE games played at the Byrd House. The one forfeit we've seen would have been played at The Sac. As far as runs per game, The Byrd House sees 3.13. The Sac sees 8.64.
-- The league hits .341 at The Sac, .212 at The Byrd House.
-- There's only 7.50 ABs between homeruns at The Sac, but a whopping 22.67 ABs to wait for a bomb at The Byrd House.

Since pitching is nowhere near as glamourous as hitting is in this league (as much as the heads try to dissuade), it's obvious that The Sac is the preferred field for players. The numbers will narrow as the season progresses though, since The Byrd House magnifies wind into the batter's face, and later in the season, the wind will not be there to magnify. However, when the final game has been played, don't expect to see The Byrd House holding a batting average over .275.

#2 - It's never too early to vote for the year-end awards!

Don't believe me? Watch me!

MVP: Scott Carmichael
Leading the league in pitching, right there in hitting. Other people may do other things better, but no one does as many things so well.
Watch out for: Dave Cain, Curtis Henning

Cy Young: Scott Carmichael
Of all the guys down there with him in ERA, I'd put money down that only he KEEPS it down there.
Watch out for: Matt Plummer, Curtis Henning

Most Improved Player of the Year: John Deatrick
The change in scenery has done him good, as well as playing with only one other teammate. He's already passed his 2002 HR total, and his pitching, while not as strong as last year, is still solid.
Watch out for: Seth Yoder, Dean Evans

Rookie of the Year: Curtis Henning
Will be a tight race with M. Plummer, but more ABs and more wins for the Road Warriors helps him. Don't be surprised to see him break the rookie record for homeruns (18), and top .300.
Watch out for: Matt Plummer, Tavis Beynon...really, watch out for any of these guys.

Defensive Player of the Year: Joey Creighton
That's not to say he's necessarily the best, but people will vote for him out of habit. Dave Cain deserves it, though. Scary good defensive player.
Watch out for: Dave Cain, Dean Evans

#1 - The Road Warriors are a bit better than last year

The 2003 rookies never saw Register. They never watched Keefer pitch. They couldn't watch Keefer hit, because, well, he didn't. A nice, fat 0-18. Anthony Sanzone was supposedly going to resurrect this team that finished in last place in 2001. All was great. Until Sanzone stopped showing up, leaving team captain Darnell Uhland to defend his team's honor alongside 15 year-old cousin Jeff Register who, upon hearing that he hit .114, may surprise you to learn he was a better HITTER than PITCHER.

One third the way through the season in 2002, the Road Warriors were 2-9. They had just come off an 0-3 gameday in the rain, and by "they," I don't mean any more than Darnell and Jeff. Darnell, the happiest guy in the world, was breaking. You could see it in him. The man who couldn't stop smiling wasn't smiling. He wasn't far from quitting. Who could blame him? Then we learned that he might not have to quit. As it turned out, cousin Jeff was being shipped out. How could Darnell's team play with just one man?

Then a man named Dave Cain showed up. Right time, right place. Darnell was hooked. So was pops, who immediately dubbed Cain "The Savior." Rang true and hard. Right away, Cain knew his mission. Not only was he to enjoy some sun and play some ball, he had to save this team. He was the Savior. No fightin' it. No denyin' it.

He gave a little peepshow at the All-Star Weekend, putting on a display of power never seen before. He had Creighton and Carmichael gushing. Anthony who? The Road Warriors were back.

They went 4-2 in their last six games, which was good enough to pull them out of the cellar. The last place team, the Longballs, became the Playerz and was filled with expansion players. Road Warriors had first pick in the 2003 draft. Would it be another Luke Carriere? Another Anthony Sanzone?

Darnell came up big this time. Curtis Henning. Local boy. Home-grown. Southpaw. Could turn on the inside stuff and could toss the ball around 80. Plus he liked to smile. And he didn't smoke between games. Wait, there's more.

Second pick, they nab Pat Plummer. Other teams want the older brother's size, power. Darnell wants the slap. He wants the OB, so DC can get the BIs. Plus, the kid keeps the ball down in the zone. And look, kid's almost as good as Cain with a glove. Also runs a 4:40 mile, which means he probably doesn't light up between games.

Which brings us to now. May 7th. Road Warriors are 9-3. First place. And this is with a Savior who's only hitting .295, a ROTY who's hitting .233, and a slap machine who's sittin' at .069. Just wait til the sun comes out. Wait til the first double dip at The Sac in 100 degree heat. Wait until John Robins stares this guy down with a man on and a one-run lead. Kiss the game goodbye. You don't have a choice.

It's the year of the Warrior.

• WB2K Preview (2-21-00)
• 2000 Bi-Weekly Report (4-25-00)
• Heat Rises in June (5-25-00)
• June 4, 2000 Summaries (6-6-00)
• June 18, 2000 Summaries (6-19-00)
• 2000 Bi-Weekly Report (7-7-00)
• July 16, 2000 Summaries (7-16-00)
• 2000 Bi-Weekly Report (9-29-00)
• 2001 Bi-Weekly Report (3-5-01)
• 2001 Bi-Weekly Report (4-5-01)
• 2001 Bi-Weekly Report (5-18-01)
• 2001 Bi-Weekly Report (8-16-01)
• 2001 Bi-Weekly Report (11-25-01)
• 2001 Bi-Weekly Report (12-15-01)
• Gameday Previews #1 (2002)
• Gameday Previews #2 (2002)
• Gameday Previews #3 (2002)
• Gameday Previews #4 (2002)
• Five Down, Ten to Go (5-7-03)
• That Special Homerun Derby (7-9-03)
• Rozak Nation (7-26-03)
• Our First Ever Stretch Run (8-29-03)